Investors could get a break from the wild swings in the market.
Wall Street forecaster Jim Bianco believes stocks will rebound this spring as the 10-year Treasury benchmark yield will temporarily decline.
“The short-term forecast is that it is oversold and likely to rally – which means we would have rates falling,” the president of Bianco Research told CNBC’s Trading Nation on Friday.
He predicts the decline will benefit indices, including the tech-heavy Nasdaq, which was rocked by rising interest rates last month. The Nasdaq is particularly vulnerable to interest rates because technology, like Treasurys, is viewed as a long-term asset.
“The stock market will definitely act like a relief,” said Bianco.
The 10-year return closed the week at 1.70% and is up nearly 89% so far this year.
“Maybe we can see it fall way back to 1.50 [percent]”Added Bianco.” But I wouldn’t consider this more than a break in a longer term move for higher returns. “
Bianco, who cites inflation as his major concern for 2021, predicts it will warm in the second half of the year due to a strong economic recovery coupled with a record amount of government aid to coronavirus.
“$ 1,400 checks are in bank accounts today. Literally today, right now,” he said. “See you Monday, President [Joe] Biden said there will be a hundred million checks in the mail. “
By the end of this year, Bianco fears it will be virtually impossible to avoid sustained inflation for the first time in a generation.
“The trend towards returns will be a push-pull effect all year round,” said Bianco. “We could get 2.50 [percent] in the next 12 months. So about 75 basis points higher. “
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